After the Istat industrial production index, also that of consumer confidence measured by Nielsen in its Global Consumer Survey is back to growth and augurs well for a turnaround which, however, will also need to be confirmed in the second quarter to declare ourselves out of the crisis. The data, however, say that at 57, the consumer confidence index is at the level of the second quarter of 2011, but then it was in free fall.
But there is still a large gap with the EU average (77 points). Italy is approaching the levels of Spain and France (respectively 61 and 59) while Germany and Great Britain still hold the record in the Old Continent (100 and 97, respectively). 93% of the population, on the other hand, believes the country is still suffering from the crisis (vs. 95% a year ago), even if 16% say that it will end in the next 12 months (vs. 12%). There is a significant increase in concerns related to the possibility of terrorist attacks in our country (+ 8 points compared to the first quarter 2014), according to 9% of respondents.
“This is a figure in sharp contrast with the general trend. It has, in fact, increased from 45 points in the last quarter of 2014 to 57 points in the first quarter of 2015. It should be noted that in the previous quarter the trend was still negative (-2 points)”, said the Managing Director of Nielsen Italia, Giovanni Fantasia, commenting the survey results.
“The reasons for this reversal – continued Fantasia – are to be found primarily in the implementation of certain structural reforms put on the agenda by the government in recent months. Secondly in economic recovery, both globally and in Europe and Italy, thanks to the low prices of raw materials and an improvement, albeit limited, in the labour market. Thirdly, in an increase in consumption demand, especially evident in large-scale distribution. In other words, we are witnessing conditions that allow families to become, at least in perspective, sources of income and no longer merely cost centres. The real problem that now arises is that of sustaining this recovery. An answer will come from the next confidence surveys in the second and third quarter. Only a consolidation of demand in the coming months will enable us to deem that we have left the crisis behind us”.
More specifically, here are some snippets from the survey.
Job prospects: good for 13% of Italians, compared with 7% in the 1st quarter of last year.
Personal finances: the perception is now positive for 21% of the sample, compared to 14% on a trend basis. Moreover, 17% of Italians believe it is time to start purchasing (+5 points compared to the 1st quarter 2014).
Focusing on respondents’ concerns, 28% of the sample said they were still worried about job stability, with the figure unchanged compared to the survey for the first quarter 2014. War and immigration remain concerns for 4% and 5%, respectively, of the population (1% and 2%, respectively, last year). 5% said they were concerned about their debts, 6% about their health and 9% about the economy.
Attitudes towards spending: after purchases for necessary goods, 37% of Italians are oriented to allocate resources to savings. Followed by those who intend to buy clothes or take a vacation (both 27%), while 22% declared the intention of wanting to spend on entertainment outside the home. 25% of the population have no money left at the end of the month.
Saving propensity: there are signs of attenuation of the intention to cut spending compared to last year’s figures, even though 72% of the sample continues to monitor financial disbursements and savings. 56% of the sample spends less on clothing (vs. 63%) as they also do for meals away from home (vs. 61%), 40% on holidays and outings (vs. 46%), 37% on use of the car (vs. 42%).
At the same time, however, it is evident that the crisis has permanently influenced the spending habits of Italians. So much so that there is an increase in the share of those who declare their intention to continue to save on electricity and gas bills (26% vs. 22% in the 1st quarter of 2014) and to buy cheaper food products (23% vs. 20%).
Finally, 20% (vs 25%) of Italians are attentive to restaurant spending and 19% (vs. 22%) to that on new clothes.
